Utveckling av ett verktyg för att mäta ASF-riskindex baserat på spatiotemporal heterogenitet hos värdpopulationen och landskap

African swine fever (ASF) occurs today among wild boar in Europe and poses a major and serious threat to pig production. As there are no effective vaccines and the mortality rate is high, it is important to prevent outbreaks as it would have a major impact on animal health and the profitability of pig production. The purpose of this project is to identify risk areas for potential introduction of African swine fever.

We will develop a risk map for ASF introduction in Sweden. In a first step, we will develop a spatiotemporal model for various risk factors to be able to simulate outbreaks of ASF. Then we will calculate a risk index for a geographical area, for example a hunting area. Finally, we will develop a web-based risk map that can be used by relevant actors.

The research group is interdisciplinary with expert knowledge in epidemiology, ASF, spatial analysis, disease modeling, disease monitoring and risk management. The results from this project will be useful as a basis for decisions for authorities, hunters and other relevant actors. The focus of this project is the introduction of African swine fever in Sweden, but the developed methodology is general and can also be used for other similar diseases in other areas.